Odds Aren't Always Everything
I think I made a decision which was technically correct, but strategically woeful, during the LC League match on Thursday night. The situation was as follows:
12 players remain, average stack is 7k, my stack is 6.5k. Blinds are 400/800 (there are a surprising amount of players left at this stage) and I am in the big blind.
Action folds round to Tony, who is short stacked on 2.5k, pushes on the button and the small blind folds. I have in the hole. I am being asked to invest 1700 to win the 3700 in the middle. If it was myself on the button in Tony’s spot, I would push with any 2 cards, although I imagine Tony might be more patient than myself. However, even if he has an Ace or a King, as long as he doesn’t dominate me I unquestionably have the odds to call. I weigh up my options and make the call. Tony has A5 unsuited, so I have about 43% chance of winning the hand. Unfortunately Tony hits his Ace and I am down to 4k and in casualty. I bust out soon after pushing into Sonny’s pocket rockets in the big blind.
The key point in this hand, is despite me making a correct call odds wise, it is highly likely I am underdog in the hand. If I lose the hand it reduces me from average stack to short stack. In tournaments I think it is sometimes worth giving up the odds, if an adverse outcome will have such a devastating effect on your tournament prospects. In a cash game, it is a call everytime, due to the fact you can go back into your pocket for more ammunition, but at that stage of a freezeout I think I made a poor decision there.
Tony went on to cash in 4th place - food for thought.
Monday is the final of our league, with a Main Event WSOP seat up for grabs. I think I go off about 5th biggest chip stack, so amongst the favourites, but with only one prize anything can happen, and the short stacks will be getting busy early. I have about 5k starting stack, but about 16 players will have 2k or less. There are 36 runners in total.
Goodness knows how work will take me asking for unpaid leave to play the Main Event if I win. In some ways, it would be better for me to get heads up and then offer my opponent the package in return for 50% equity. We shall see.
I won a modest £90 in the cash game after the tournament, so left a happy camper. Slowly but surely I am getting the live cash balance back towards the black…